12,000 Years of Silence: Ethiopia's Volcano Problem Is Also a Supply Chain Problem

Hayli Gubbi volcano in Ethiopia's Afar region erupted on November 23, with an ash plume reaching 45,000 feet that drifted across Yemen, Oman, and into India. Air India canceled 11 flights while Akasa scrapped flights to Jeddah, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi. The volcano is located about 800 kilometers northeast of Addis Ababa, where Ethiopian Airlines runs one of Africa's largest cargo operations, with a network covering over 135 international destinations and over 65 dedicated freighter services.

The scale of operations matters here. The airline operates 10 Boeing 777-200Fs, four 737-800s and two 767-300Fs, with a new $55 million e-commerce logistics facility handling up to 150,000 tons annually. Addis Ababa Bole International Airport handles over 400,000 tons of cargo annually as the largest cargo hub in East Africa.

For US companies, Ethiopian Airlines represents a critical node in African supply chains. Electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and perishables flow through Addis Ababa to American distribution centers. The volcano eruption caused no direct damage to airport infrastructure this time. But volcanic ash reached flight altitudes across multiple countries, forcing route diversions and cancellations. When ash clouds ground cargo operations for even 48 hours, temperature-controlled shipments spoil, time-sensitive components miss production windows, and just-in-time inventory systems break.

For non-US manufacturers, particularly European and Asian companies sourcing from or supplying to Africa, Addis Ababa functions as the continental gateway. Ethiopian Cargo became the largest air cargo carrier in Africa by 2019, using a hub-and-spoke model to connect African businesses to global markets. Single-source dependencies on African cargo routes create fragility. When the primary hub faces disruption, alternatives like Nairobi or Johannesburg lack equivalent capacity and connectivity.

The broader issue extends beyond this specific eruption. Hayli Gubbi sits within a zone of intense geological activity where two tectonic plates meet in Ethiopia's Afar region. Ethiopia has 50 known volcanoes, several dormant for thousands of years. Companies built supply chains assuming Ethiopian infrastructure would remain accessible. A volcano with no eruption history for 12,000 years just activated. When geological assumptions fail, the supply chains optimized around stable infrastructure face disruptions no contingency plan anticipated.

The 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption in Iceland paralyzed European airspace for days, stranding millions and costing the airline industry billions. Ethiopia's eruption was smaller but demonstrates how single-point-of-failure hubs amplify regional disruptions into global supply chain events.

In a world of black swans and cascading disruptions, this is what resilience in action looks like.