Iceland’s Eruption: A Mild Reminder with Major Implications

Early this morning on July 16, a new volcanic fissure opened on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula. It sent lava and smoke into the air just miles from the Blue Lagoon and prompting local evacuations. Authorities have called it a “small” eruption, and thankfully, flights at Keflavík International remain unaffected. For now, it’s business as usual.

But those of us in supply chain leadership know that “business as usual” can change quickly.

Today’s eruption marks the 12th eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula since 2021. After centuries of quiet, this region has become one of the most active volcanic zones in Europe, fueling concerns that a much larger eruption could be building beneath the surface. Scientists warn that these frequent eruptions may signal a new volcanic cycle that could last for decades.

Fifteen years ago, Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull eruption grounded more than 100,000 flights across Europe and North America, costing global trade billions and catching even the most sophisticated logistics networks off guard. In that case, fine ash particles climbed into upper flight paths, triggering a cascading disruption across air cargo, perishables, pharma, and just-in-time manufacturing.

This morning’s eruption isn’t that. But it’s a reminder of how fast disruption can return—and why resilience isn’t just about reacting to the crisis you can see. It’s about preparing for the one that might be 36 hours, 3,000 miles, or 3 risk signals away.

We’re tracking events like this in real time and modeling “what if” fallout across global networks—from grounded cargo flights to rerouted perishable goods. Because while this eruption may pass quietly, the next one might not.

Will your supply chain be ready when the next plume rises?