The Chemical Nobody Watches Just Became the Disruption Everyone Should.

Most supply chain professionals can name the critical materials at risk from the Middle East conflict. Oil, LNG, helium, fertilizer. Sulfuric acid rarely makes the list. From May 2026, that oversight will become expensive.

China has indicated it will halt exports of sulfuric acid starting in May, hitting metals and fertilizer industries already strained by raw material bottlenecks from the Iran war. The ban covers sulfuric acid produced as a byproduct of copper and zinc smelting. China produces more than 40% of the world's sulfuric acid and was the largest exporter in 2025. Removing that volume from global markets is not a marginal adjustment. It is a structural shock arriving on top of an existing one.

Why two disruptions converging is worse than one

The Middle East conflict has already constrained global sulfur supply—the primary feedstock for sulfuric acid production—by blocking Strait of Hormuz shipments from a region that accounts for roughly a third of global sulfur output. Since the start of the crisis, sulfur prices have increased approximately 70% and sulfuric acid prices in Chile have risen 44% in a single month. China's export ban removes the last flexible supply valve that buyers had been relying on to partially offset the Middle Eastern disruption. The combination of war-driven sulfur disruption and China's export halt is less a temporary inconvenience than a structural stress test for metals, fertilizer and food supply chains worldwide. 

The downstream exposure is broader than it appears

Sulfuric acid sits at the intersection of two critical supply chains that most manufacturers track separately. The largest single industrial use is the manufacture of phosphate fertilizers, accounting for roughly 50% of global consumption. Beyond agriculture, it is critical for petroleum refining, chemical synthesis for plastics and detergents, car battery manufacturing, and water treatment. Crucially, it is the primary reagent in copper and nickel extraction through heap leaching. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, buys over one million tonnes of Chinese sulfuric acid every year, and around a fifth of Chilean copper output involves processing that depends directly on the acid. 

Copper feeds into electrical equipment, construction, automotive manufacturing, and EV batteries. Phosphate fertilizer feeds into global food production. Both chains now face a simultaneous input cost shock with no readily available alternative sourcing at scale.

For European and US manufacturers buying copper components, electronic assemblies, or agricultural commodities, the price signal is already moving. Some estimates suggest costs could rise 40% to 60% compared to pre-ban pricing structures for operations currently relying on Chinese acid supplies. The ban does not take effect until May. The panic buying ahead of it has already started.