When Two Chokepoints Close at Once

Last Friday, something happened that supply chain textbooks said was unlikely: two of the world's most critical maritime corridors shut down at the same time.

Hours after US and Israeli forces struck Iran on February 28, Iran's Revolutionary Guard began warning vessels across the Strait of Hormuz that no ship would be allowed to pass. By Saturday evening, traffic through the strait had dropped 70%. Within the same window, Houthi forces announced they would resume Red Sea attacks, reversing the ceasefire that had held since early 2025.

The two routes connecting Asia, the Middle East, and Europe by sea are now either blocked or under fire.

About 20% of the world’s oil flows through Hormuz daily. Around 170 container ships are stuck in or near the strait. Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, and CMA CGM have suspended transits. Oil prices are expected to open above $100 per barrel on Monday, with projections of $120 to $150 if the disruption holds.

For manufacturers, this is already real. Petrochemical feedstock costs could climb 15 to 25% in the coming weeks, hitting plastics, adhesives, coatings, and synthetic rubber. These materials sit deep inside automotive, aerospace, and electronics supply chains. Automakers absorbing tariff costs of $1 billion (Ford) to $4 billion (GM) now face input cost inflation they did not plan for.

European manufacturers are especially exposed. The continent depends on Gulf energy, and with Red Sea routes also compromised, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10 to 14 days per shipment. German and French automotive and aerospace suppliers, many still recovering from last year’s tariff shock, are running scenario plans they hoped would stay theoretical.

In Asia, China, India, Japan, and South Korea account for 69% of crude flowing through Hormuz. Factory output and transport networks across the region depend on uninterrupted Gulf supply.

The takeaway for supply chain leaders: chokepoint risk is not an edge case. It is a structural vulnerability. Companies that invested in supplier diversification and regional inventory buffers are better positioned today. Those that treated resilience as a line item to cut are exposed.

This situation is still developing. But even if Hormuz reopens within days, the signal will reshape procurement strategy for the rest of 2026.